Executive summary (blended rank)
Top 5 ranking reasons
Each note is generated from the same blend and data-score breakdown used by the headline ranking.
Squad data + club season (17 R16 contenders)
Squads come from Wikipedia “Current squad” tables (caps + international goals + club). The data score uses a unified 2025-26 club-season layer parsed from each player’s Wikipedia club article (split rows, calendar-year tables, Liga MX halves, or weak fallbacks), plus recent UCL federation counts, international production, age, and league aggregates. Long-run UEFA finals pedigree in data/uefa_competitions.json is context only and is not in dataScore.
| # | Nation | Blended | Recent form | Data | Σ intl G | UEFA club pts | Weak-src |
|---|
Composite chart (blended score)
Per-nation highlights (top players)
Top players (cross-country visualization)
Default table/chart order uses a display table score (model score + 0.28×value proxy + small consensus-name bonus from star_anchors.mjs) so young stars are not dropped by caps-heavy model scores alone. Model score is still playerLatestFormScore (used for Top26/Top11 and national rankings). Chart: top 15 by current sort; table: top 100. Click headers to sort.
| # | Player | Country | Age | Pos | Club | Lg G | Lg App | Lg Ast | Season | Club src | UCL KO | Caps/Intl G | Ht | Trophies | Value | Model | Table |
|---|
R16 squad roster (every player, all 17 nations)
Every modeled nation's full 26-man squad with Wikipedia-derived enrichment: age, club season apps/goals/assists, height, preferred foot, and a trophy index summed from the player's Honours section. Click a country to expand. The Value column is a proxy for transfer-market value. Outfield: (clubGoals + 0.7·clubAssists + 0.06·clubApps + 1.5·trophies) × ageWeight + 0.4·intlGoals. Goalkeepers: (0.12·clubApps + 1.5·trophies) × ageWeight + 0.4·intlGoals from the same Wikipedia club layer.
Methodology (proportionate)
- International form: Euro 2024 knockout results from
wiki/interests/soccer/data/tournaments/uefa-euro-2024.md(Spain > France in SF; Spain > England in final). - World Cup pedigree:
wiki/interests/soccer/competitions/fifa-world-cup.md(France 2018 winner, France 2022 finalist). - Squad + latest club layer: Wikipedia current squads; 2025-26 club apps/goals/assists from each player’s Wikipedia club article (all leagues, same parsing rules for every nation). UEFA finals pedigree (UCL, UEL, CWC) is context only and is not in the data score.
- Blended score:
(4/9)×recentForm + (5/9)×data(each axis on 0–100). Recent form uses only WC 2022, Euro 2024, and Nations League 2024-25 (no WC 2018, no NL 2022-23). Brazil and Argentina use WC 2022 only on that axis. Data prioritises UCL 2025-26 (current campaign toward the June 2026 final; refresh viafetch_competition_snapshots.mjs), a small UCL 2024-25 tail, mean of top-26 player form, intl production, age, and 2025-26 club-layer league stats. Long-run UEFA pedigree tables in the report are context only (not in dataScore). - Schedule / path: Group opponents from
wiki/interests/soccer/data/tournaments/world-cup-2026.md. Twelve groups reconstructed by matching each nation’s three group opponents (fixture graph clustering). - Knockout simulation: R32/R16/QF/SF/Final wiring matches
world-cup-2026.md(W73…W102). Third-place slots pick the best available third by blended score without reusing a team. Every tie is resolved to the side with the higher blended score (not Elo, not random draws).
Forecasting algorithm (full specification)
Research / data provenance
How final scores are built
Reference data (repository paths)
Recent UCL signal (2025-26 + 2024-25)
Nation-level UCL signal uses two seasons with recency decay: 2025-26 in-progress bracket (higher weight) and 2024-25 completed season (next weight). Weighted points per season: 4×champion + 2×finalist + 1×SF + 0.5×QF + 0.25×R16.
| Nation | UCL 2025-26 (R16/QF/SF/F/C) | UCL 2024-25 (R16/QF/SF/F/C) | KO clubs on roster (25–26) | KO clubs on roster (24–25) | Recent UCL pts |
|---|
UEFA club competitions enrichment (internet-sourced)
By-nation finals pedigree for UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Cup Winners' Cup (Wikipedia source pages). Shown for human context only — it is not blended into the quantitative data score (which uses current UCL nation counts + squad + 2025-26 league rows).
| Nation | UCL T/RU | UEL T/RU | CWC T/RU | Weighted pts |
|---|
Contender groups (from WC 2026 fixtures)
Group letters are a working label for bracket notation (1A…1L); rows list where each modelled nation sits in the inferred draw.
| Grp | Contenders in this pool |
|---|
Illustrative strength index (1–10, static)
Same subjective index as before the squad build — for comparison with the blended chart above.
Euro 2024 — knockout path (data-backed)
| Round | Result (from wiki table) |
|---|
Simulated knockout path (blended-score ties)
Structure: R32 → R16 → QF → SF → Final per wiki/interests/soccer/data/tournaments/world-cup-2026.md. Third-place pools pick the strongest available third by blended score (each third used once). Important: the executive “top 3” is overall blended rank; not all three can survive if they meet early (e.g. two top-3 sides in one R16).
QF deep-dive (sources + key players)
For each simulated quarter-finalist: recent-form score is a weighted average of WC 2022, Euro 2024, and Nations League 2024-25 only (UEFA nations; CONMEBOL sides use WC 2022 only). Medal-style stage bonuses apply through fourth place and strong league-phase finishes. Top 5 players: outfield playerLatestFormScore = (intlGoals × 1.8 + caps × 0.045 + clubGoals × 0.8 + clubAssists × 0.5 + clubApps × 0.08) × ageWeight; goalkeepers use (intlGoals × 1.8 + caps × 0.045 + clubApps × 0.15) × ageWeight with club apps from the Wikipedia club layer. ageWeight peaks at 24-29 (same curve as team data score).